DaveG at www.race42008.com says Romney can't possibly win.
Poll Alert: McCain Ahead in South Carolina; Romney Falls Behind Two Non-Candidates
So says the latest poll out of South Carolina:
GOP Primary
John McCain: 25%
Rudy Giuliani: 20%
Fred Thompson: 16%
Newt Gingrich: 12%
Mitt Romney: 8%
Other findings of note: in a head-to-head matchup, McCain beats Rudy by a single point, while the Arizona senator defeats Thompson by 14 points. Polls like this, along with Rudy’s flirtation with the idea of abandoning the early states, make me wonder whether or not Team McCain has already taken the first few primaries off the table for the other candidates. If McCain wins the trio of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, he will be a very difficult juggernaut to stop. And at that point, it will be a McCain/Rudy race due to the supposed Giuliani “firewall” on February 5th, with Republicans from lots of Rudy-friendly states coming to the polls. At this point, I’d have to say that Rudy and McCain are far more likely than anyone else in the field to get the nod. That includes Fred Thompson, who I once had high hopes for. Both Fred and Newt are mistaken if they think they can stay out of this thing until the fall and experience some sort of overnight groundswell of support. GOP presidential campaigns don’t work that way. Though it should be noted that the two non-candidates still trounce Mitt Romney, despite the former Bay State governor’s own efforts in South Carolina. Well, Romney can always be Secretary of Commerce or something.
by DaveG @ 6:34 pm. Filed under Poll Watch
I am saving this because I think he's wrong. He would think I am wrong if he knew of my existence. I am basing my opinion on the fact that I first saw Mitt Romney in October of 1994, when I stayed in my hotel room at the prosecutor's conference in Bar Harbor so I could watch a debate between Teddy Kennedy and some guy with a weird name who supposedly had been a bishop or something. I've watched him make the impossible look easy. Am I the only person who remembers him beating Shannon O'Brien? Check out this story from the January 31, 2002 Boston Phoenix:
HERE’S AN IMPROBABLE news story that would get the mouths of Republican stalwarts watering.
MARCH 1, 2002, SALT LAKE CITY — Fresh on the heels of a triumphant Winter Olympics, Republican multimillionaire Mitt Romney declared yesterday his candidacy for the governorship of Massachusetts.
Right now, the idea that Romney would get back into Massachusetts politics this year is still fanciful. Romney, who ran against Senator Ted Kennedy in 1994 (and gave Massachusetts’s senior senator perhaps the toughest fight of his career), is fully engaged in his role as president of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee for the Winter Olympics. And while Romney would likely commit millions of his own dollars to a gubernatorial run, he would start at a serious financial disadvantage compared to his opponents. The Democrat who has raised the most money so far, Senate president Tom Birmingham, has a war chest of $2.9 million. Governor Jane Swift herself has raised $1.7 million. Besides, the pragmatic Romney would be unlikely to break Republican Party discipline and challenge Swift.
If you want to know about Mitt and his ability to succeed where others fail, read the whole thing.
The story hints that he has the money, the looks, and the organization to make a run, but points out that it is a long shot. It was, of course, a long shot. He won anyway. Will he win again? I don't know, but what I do know is that only a fool would count him out at this point.
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